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I've never been one to engage myself in the guessing game that is the Mock Draft. Unfortunately, with my exposure to the inner workings of the hockey culture with the New York Islanders, it has spawned a new-found understanding of the pundits. They are rarely correct in their assumptions of what a team will do but they are absolutely spot-on when it comes to evaluating prospects. So without further ado, I give you my attempt at being a pundit: With the first selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, the New York Islanders select...John Tavares from the London Knights of Ontario Hockey League. Let me know what you think in the Comments section.
Yes, I know what you're thinking. Didn't you say that it was going to be Victor Hedman two months ago? I did say that, but that's what I believed Garth might do at the time. With just over two weeks to go before the Draft, I think it's time that I spoke my opinion about who I want for the Islanders coming out of this year's Draft.
Click the link to get the full listing of my Mock Draft.
1. New York Islanders-John Tavares C, London Knights, OHL
--I still have my doubts that Garth isn’t just playing everyone for fools and will take JT at #1. Let’s all just hope for the best. Let’s be honest, the Isles could use the scoring and even if he doesn’t turn into Crosby #2, it’s 20-30 goals you didn’t have last year.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning-Victor Hedman D, MODO, SEL
--This is no consolation prize. A generational d-man with size, speed and skill, nothing else need be said. You can’t really say much else except for the fact that the Lightning lucked out and will have a solid blueline starting next season with this young man.
3. Colorado Avalanche-Matt Duchene, Brampton Battalion C, OHL
--Give the kid billed as the next “Stevie Y” a little time to develop with Uncle Joe.
4. Atlanta Thrashers-Evander Kane, Vancouver Giants C, WHL
--Kovi+Kane=Whatever winger on the left side you want. Might project better as a winger. At that point, any center will do. Good strength and size for his age.
5. Los Angeles Kings-Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson LW, Timra, SEL
--Another highly-skilled forward to go along with their stable of already highly-skilled forwards. Could be a game-breaker.
6. Phoenix Coyotes-Dmitry Kulikov D, Drummondville Voltigeurs, QMJHL
--Stock has really been on the rise of late and is a complete defensive workhorse. He will be rewarded for a lot of hard work during the Memorial Cup.
7. Toronto Maple Leafs-Brayden Schenn C, Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL
--With Burke not able to acquire any higher slot and subsequently Tavares, taking the younger Schenn is no slouchy trade-off.
8. Dallas Stars-Jared Cowen D, Spokane Chiefs, WHL
--Coming off a knee injury that kept him out the majority of last season, the big d-man rebounds and will be a huge asset to the Lone Stars. Think Derian Hatcher.
9. Ottawa Senators-John Moore D, Chicago Steel, USHL
--Arguably the best skater in the draft and by far the best American d-man.
10. Edmonton Oilers-Zack Kassian RW, Peterborough Petes, OHL
--Rough and tumble winger fills a need for the Oilers who need to get tougher.
11. Nashville Predators-Oliver Ekman-Larsson D, Leksands, Swe-2
--Slick Swedish d-man who snuck up on everybody. Will be an impact player once he matures.
12. Minnesota Wild-Jordan Schroeder RW, US-NTDP U18
--Although small in size, Schroeder makes up for it with speed and skill; good fit.
13. Buffalo Sabres-Ryan Ellis D, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
--Ellis is the ideal replacement for Brian Campbell. Quick, skilled and a good first pass, combine to make this smallish d-man a real high-quality pick at this spot.
14. Florida Panthers-Simon Despres D, St. John Sea Dogs, QMJHL
--Can anyone say “JayBo’s replacement”? Despres is a smooth-skating offensive d-man with good size. Within 2 years he will be a solid NHLer.
15. Anaheim Ducks-Carter Ashton RW, Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL
--Follows the model of large man with skills that Anaheim has built on since Brian Burke was the GM.
16. Columbus Blue Jackets-Scott Glennie RW, Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL
--A goal scorer, period. Will definitely vie for a spot in the Jackets top 6.
17. St. Louis Blues-Jacob Josefson C, Djurgarden, SEL
--The Blues have always had good luck with Euro imports. Josefson should not be a disappointment as he will grow to be a solid center.
18. Montreal Canadiens-Nazem Kadri C, London Knights, OHL
--After putting up a good showing in the OHL Playoffs, Kadri will get a ride to Les Habitants due to his great hand-eye, complete package and willingness to bleed Bleu, Blanc et. Rouge.
19. New York Rangers-Peter Holland C, Guelph Storm, OHL
--Gifted two-way center that will help solidify the top 9 in the Big Apple. He’s been compared to Tomas Holmstrom for his penchant for standing in front.
20. Calgary Flames-Jordan Caron C, Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL
--Size and hands. He should be a really good fit in an already strong offense in Alberta.
21. Philadelphia Flyers-Nick Leddy D, Eden Prarie Rams, MN-HS
--After stealing Sbisa late in the 1st Round last year, the Flyers continue picking up sleeper d-men in this year’s Draft starting with “Mr. Hockey 2009”.
22. Vancouver Canucks-Kyle Palmieri RW/C, US-NTDP U18
--With the Sedins possibly on the way out, Palmieri will provide some scoring punch for the Canucks to aide Ryan Kesler.
23. New Jersey Devils-Landon Ferraro RW, Red Deer Rebels, WHL
--Let the trend continue. The Devils have found success with Parise. How could it hurt to take yet another Islander by association?
24. Washington Capitals-Tim Erixon D, Skelleftea, SEL
--A glaring deficiency arose during the playoffs, namely defense. Pair Erixon with Green on the PP and give him ample minutes at even-strength. It also helps that Karl Alzner, the Caps top D prospect, will be with the big team next year.
25. Boston Bruins-Chris Krieder LW, Andover Academy, MA-HS
--While not playing the most competitive hockey out there, Krieder has managed to impress just about everybody. Had a fantastic Combine.
26. New York Islanders (from San Jose)-David Rundblad D, Skelleftea, SEL
--Skilled Swede with good puck-moving abilities. Should fit right in after one more year in the SEL.
27. Carolina Hurricanes-Louis LeBlanc C, Omaha Lancers, USHL
--The Hurricanes just didn’t have the scoring power to overcome the Penguins in the Conference Finals. LeBlanc should be able to help.
28. Chicago Blackhawks-Jeremy Morin C, US-NTDP U18
--Who doesn’t want more good American players coming from the NTDP? They seem to be producing some solid players these days.
29. Detroit Red Wings-Calvin de Haan D, Oshawa Generals, OHL
--Ever heard of Brian Rafalski? Well, what’s wrong with bringing in a point-per-game younger version?
30. Pittsburgh Penguins-Drew Shore C, US-NTDP U18
--Good size and skill but will need some college seasoning. Will fit right in a couple of years down the road.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
It's Time for The Prediction
Friday, April 24, 2009
The Truth: What I Think Will Happen on June 26, 2009
Now that I've taken my turn at "Armchair GM", I think it's time to explain what will almost certainly happen on June 26, 2009 when the 2009 NHL Entry Draft begins. Let's begin with where the Isles will be slotted in this year's Draft:
Round 1
- 1st Overall (Won in the 2009 Draft Lottery)
- 26th Overall (UPDATED (4/25/09): San Jose's Draft Pick-acquired in Chris Campoli trade. Conditional on where San Jose finishes in the 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs)
- 31st Overall
- 37th Overall (Acquired at 2008 Draft from Toronto in the 5-7-9 move)
- 60th Overall (Acquired from the Bruins in Ben Walter trade)
- 62nd Overall
- 84th Overall (UPDATED (4/25/09): Acquired in Bill Guerin trade, Penguins won their 1st round matchup against the Flyers)
- 92nd Overall
Round 5
- 122nd Overall
Round 6
- 152nd Overall
Round 7
- 182nd Overall
So what are the Islanders going to do with all these draft picks? Well frankly, I can't tell you how everything will shake out by the time the 2nd Round starts but I can tell you what will happen in the 1st Round.
I've been running the poll above for a week and a half and most resoundingly, fans of this website have voted in favor of drafting John Tavares (89% at the time of this post to be exact). I'm here to let you know.......YOU MIGHT BE DISAPPOINTED!
If my feelings about Garth and the way he operates are correct, then Islanders fans might be calling for his head after he announces the 1st Overall Selection. I'm predicting this today, two months in advance. Garth Snow, with the Islanders #1 Draft pick will select....Victor Hedman.
Ever since the conference call after the Draft Lottery, I've had this inkling that Garth was leaning towards the hulking defenseman over the prolific sniper. I believe that Garth endorses the old adage, "Defense Wins Championships" and it's something that will heavily influence his decision. If the scouts leading up to the Entry Draft are correct then it will be John Tavares who goes with the top selection. However, I have a feeling Garth will defy the experts on this one.
If this scenario doesn't play out as I predicted with Hedman going 1st overall and it is Tavares (or another forward such as Matt Duchene) that claims the top spot, as many Islanders fans hope, then look for the Islanders to utilize that late first rounder (from the Campoli trade) and one or two of the three second round picks to move into the 15-18 range. I'd love to see Simon Despres in an Isles sweater in the future if they can grab him around there. He's a good skater with great size and solid nasty streak. He could be very interesting if the Islanders choose the more traditional route of selecting the consensus best player available.
In some respects, I hope that I'm wrong. In others, I wouldn't be terribly disappointed with drafting a defenseman that could basically do it all with size and speed. However, at the end of the day, it's not my decision and it's going to be two long months waiting for June 26, 2009 to come around.
(Photo courtesy of Victor Hedman's Wikipedia Page)
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Garth Snow's Gonna Do WHAT????!!!!!
Boy oh boy, have things really gotten interesting over the past week. Ever since the Islanders retained the 1st Overall Draft Pick last Tuesday evening, pundits, fans and NHL execs have been drooling over the prospect of what Garth Snow might do with the envious drafting position.
Seriously, how often is a franchise faced with such a gleefully difficult decision. Either you draft a sniper that has been touted as a phenom since he couldn't even shave (although if you we're talking about Sidney "Cry-Baby" Crosby that may still be a concern). A 6'6", 220lbs fleet-footed monster from Scandinavia, swinging his Battle Axe and killing anything that's within 15 feet. Or you could give another team a shot at these two beasts by making said team give away the farm first.
I'm happy to call myself an Islanders fan today, despite that crappy '08-'09 campaign. It's already a distant memory.
Here are the different perspectives as I see them:
Islanders fans are severely in one corner that we'll call, "I Love You, JT! I Want to Bear Your Children!". Also, don't forget to lump Toronto Laffs Leafs GM, Brian Burke in that group (watch that prospect tampering there Bri-dog). As my buddy Dom over at LighthouseHockey.com so eloquently states as the motto for his site: "Taking Bids for John Tavares that Start with your First-Born". Better stock that cupboard because offering up Bozak, Hanson or even your coveted Luke Schenn isn't enough for us, Burkie.
Pundits not known as Central Scouting are torn and are starting to get a little tepid on Tavares. Kyle Woodlief, former Preds scout and purveyor of The Redline Report, labels JT's lackluster skating ability and floundering attitude as cause for concern. In the same breath, of course, he also mentions Tavares will score "40 or 50 goals a season in the NHL". I don't see a problem there and neither did Mike Bossy when he scored 573 career goals. However, the Brett Hull comparison does have me a tad worried.
One player that seems to be flying under the radar and impressing everyone as the OHL playoffs march on, is Brampton Battalion Centre (yes, I used the Canadian/English spelling), Matt Duchene. Talk about a prospect that is tailor-made for Scott Gordon's "Go-Go" System and is defensively responsible to boot. Hmm, makes me wonder...could Garth pull a fast one on everyone (I'll get to the possibilities in Part Deux...tomorrow).
Lest we not forget, our Scandinavian Axe-Wielder. When people have been talking about this kid who "skates like wind", to use a phrase from Garth himself, that is 6'6" and 220lbs and could chew up minutes better than Leif Erikkson eating moose meat, it makes you stop and think. We could use a franchise blueliner, a la Denis Potvin. Although, I think Ken Morrow put it best last Tuesday when he said, "There Can Be Only ONE! HIGHLANDER! There's only one Denis Potvin".
When Garth was asked during the conference call following the Draft Powerball Drawing/Dumb Luck, Picking out of a Pot Gold with a Skittles Rainbow flowing into it Lottery if he had a clear-cut favorite in what many believe is a two-horse race, he responded, "Yes, I do. But I'm not going to divulge that information." Good for you Garth. Playing it close to the vest. As close as having a good relationship with Pat Brisson, agent to both Tavares and Duchene over the past several years.
So, those are the conventional routes that our now thrust into the spotlight GM is facing. What about the more...unconventional routes? You'll have to come back tomorrow for those gems. Yeah, they might be off the wall, but with the way things are shaping up it could be like the New York Lotto Jackpot's motto goes: "Hey You Never Know!"
What do you think? Leave a comment in the section below.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
THE HOCKEY G-DS HAVE SPOKEN!
Thanks to Arnie and Kerri Winnitt for getting me the Mike Bossy and Bryan Trottier Bobbleheads
The Hockey G-ds have spoken!!
"It put a huge smile on my face. It's obviously a great moment for this franchise and a great moment for our fans. It's gonna be a great day in June...We're gonna get a great player for this team. We have meetings coming up at the end of the week. As we've done in the past, we'll have meetings in May and June and we'll go through our process diligently and thoroughly. It will be a great Draft Day for this organization and our fans."
"Kenny had his 4 Stanley Cup rings and his Gold Medal around his neck."
"The reward is we're gonna get a great player. No doubt about it. It obviously doesn't disguise the fact that coming in 30th place is unacceptable and I think Kenny Morrow said it best that we don't want to be in this position next year. Bottom line, it's a situation we're gonna add a another great piece to the puzzle that we're building on Long Island. There's a lot of good things happening right now in this organization and it's an exciting time to be an Islanders fan and a New York Islander."
He went on to give a short scouting report of the top two players in this year's Draft, John Tavares of the OHL London Knights and Victor Hedman of Modo in the Swedish Elite League:"There's a lot of pressure. That's why we're gonna go through our due diligence with the staff. Bottom line, we're looking to build a consistent contender. A team that can win a Stanley Cup."
"Obviously both of those players are exceptional talents and they're unique in their own right as a forward or defenseman. The differences are obvious.---With Hedman, you have a 6'6" defenseman who skates like the wind and I had the opportunity to watch both of them play against each other. In John Tavares, you have a forward that obviously who can put up huge numbers offensively. It's two players who are exceptional talents and that's the one great aspect of being in the position we're in right now. We know we're gonna get a fantastic player."
"Your looking for a fit not only in your system, but in your locker room. We have a strong group now, in our room. We have a lot of younger players that took huge strides this year in the right direction. It's something we put a lot of thought in to (how the next piece of the puzzle is gonna fit)."
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Time to Hold Your Breath....
If you held your breath, you're most likely a Ranger fan who is under the delusion that Ovechkin, Semin and Green aren't going to combine for 20+ goals in the 4 or 5 games it'll take the Caps to dispatch the Rag$. Now that I've taken a shot at the Crosstown Morons who think the Islanders should go to Kansas City, on to more formative topics.
For Islanders fans around the world, tonight at 8PM will mark the beginning of the
next chapter in the franchise's storied history. From Expansion, to upstart, to Stanley Cup Champions, to Dynasty, to solid playoff contender, to Cinderella story, to Laughingstock and back, now is the time the Islanders define the next 10 years of their existence. With the Lighthouse Project mired in political upheaval and the team landing itself the chance at a top 2 pick by finishing last in the NHL, it's been kind of a sweet and sour deal. On the one hand, the boys in blue and orange could walk away with a generational player in John Tavares or Victor Hedman or this could get really interesting, really quick.
What happens if things take an odd turn this evening and one of the four teams ahead of the Islanders (Tampa, Colorado, Atlanta and L.A.) does cash in on that 51.8% chance of getting the #1 pick? (I detailed the lottery system in my post, How Does 18.8% Sound?, so give that a read because I won't belabor the point)
Frankly anything could happen. It's not out of the question for Garth Sn
ow to entertain offers for the #2 pick if he can garner some superstar talent and a 5-10 pick in this year's Draft for the right draft in that position. There are a lot of teams that have been salivating over Tavares and Hedman for close to two years. Give them a chance to prove how much these prospects are worth to them (in the case of having Tavares available at #2, I wouldn't think twice if I were Garth and take JT).
If the Islanders do retain the #1 and Garth even sniffs offers for the chance to choose between the top two prospects, then he is out of his mind. Having the opportunity to make a choice between arguably the best prospects since the turn of the century is rare indeed. It's time to end the Islanders fans suffering and do what's best for the franchise and the fans, not just "what best fits the system". Hopefully, whoever gets drafted by the Islanders does fit the mold, but at this point I think it's safe to say that the best available prospect should be taken.
The way the ping pong balls bounce tonight means little considering the opportunity at hand. Either you walk away with one of the best prospects in 25 years or you walk away with a superstar, a pick or picks and a chance to draft even more players in the first and second rounds of this very deep draft. There really is no way the Islanders can lose out on this deal. The only way I could see that happening is if GM Garth Snow decides it's best to trade away the #1. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.
Stories related to tonight's festivities:
- Greg Logan stirs the pot a bit with his article in today's Newsday detailing Garth Snow's willingness to explore of all of his options and not just the ones named "Tavares" and "Hedman".
- Chris Botta of Islanders: Point Blank has a couple of takes from "The Architect" Bill Torrey and TSN/NHL personality Pierre McGuire on what they think will happen.
- Dominik over at SB Nation's Lighthouse Hockey has his rundown in the LHinks of the Day.
- Adam Kimmelman, who writes for NHL.com, has a piece on tonight's Draft Lottery as well.
- Also, don't miss TSN's coverage (more comprehensive than anything in the U.S.) tonight.
Whatever happens, I've been told via Press Release that the Islanders will be holding a Conference Call with Garth Snow immediately following the Draft Lottery program airing on Versus in the States at 8PM. I will be back tonight with an update on Garth's comments following the event.
(Photos courtesy of LighthouseHockey.com (Ovechkin), TSN.ca (Draft Lottery), OntarioHockeyLeague.com (Tavares), ProHockeyNews.com (Hedman) and HotStoveNewYork.com (Garth and Wang))
For Questions, Comments or Random Draft Drawings contact YOLANDA VEGA and her associate blogger at DougD84@optonline.net or in the Comment space.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
How Does 18.8% Sound? UPDATE: Lecavalier Done for the Season
With the season winding down and the final standings coming into focus, it's becoming increasingly apparent to me that the Islanders will not be finishing in the basement. With the league as a whole on an upswing with roughly 20 teams vying f
or a combination of playoff spots, home-ice advantage and the President's Trophy, this season can easily be ranked as one of, it not the best since the work stoppage. The Islanders, however, are in a bitter battle of their own as the curtain closes on the 2008-2009 campaign.
Since Christmas, Islanders fans have been itching at a shot for either John Tavares or Victor Hedman. It was almost a foregone conclusion that the Islanders would be a lock to finish dead last in this 30 team league. Not so fast. Enter the Colorado Avalanche. If you want to talk about a sad story in this league, you can't find many that would best the pitfalls the Avalanche have endured this year other than the Islanders, of course. 
Even with NHL "stars" Ryan Smyth, Milan Hejduk, Paul Stasny, John-Michael Liles and Adam Foote, the Avalanche have managed a paltry 64 points overall. As the Islanders have, the Avalanche also have been racked with injuries (The Islanders have a clear lead in Total Man Games Lost with well over 500 this season). The goaltending duo of Peter Budaj and Andrew Raycroft have played so poorly this year that they both rank in the bottom five of most goaltending stats. The head coach, Tony Granato, has been on the hot seat for most of the season and probably will see his tenure end as quickly as the final buzzer. Suffice it to say, it's been an absolute mess.
With their loss last night to Phoenix, 3-0, it has become clear to this blogger that the "lead" the Islanders had to secure the last overall spot is in serious danger (the Isles have 59 points). The boys have been playing well the second half of the season and I wouldn't be totally surprised if they ended up in 29th when all is said and done. What does this mean when April 14th rolls around and the Draft Lottery is conducted? Well, a few things. Let's review.
I've been saying this all year; if the Islanders were unlucky enough to secure 30th place they would likely get bumped down to 2nd overall in the Draft anyway. It's been a trend ever since the Draft Lottery was instituted in 1995 where only 4 teams have retained the 1st overall pick.
See the tables below courtesy of Lightning.NHL.com:
Results of Previous Draft Drawings
| Year | Selected | Effect On Draft Order | Player Selected |
| 1995 | Los Angeles | Moved from 7th to 3rd | D Aki Berg |
| 1996 | Ottawa | Retained 1st selection | D Chris Phillips |
| 1997 | Boston | Retained 1st selection | C Joe Thornton |
| 1998 | Tampa Bay | Moved from 3rd to 1st via trades | C Vincent Lecavalier |
| 1999 | Chicago | Moved from 8th to 4th | RW Pavel Brendl* |
| 2000 | NY Islanders | Moved from 5th to 1st | G Rick DiPietro |
| 2001 | Atlanta | Moved from 3rd to 1st | LW Ilya Kovalchuk |
| 2002 | Florida | Moved from 3rd to 1st | LW Rick Nash** |
| 2003 | Florida | Moved from 4th to 1st | G Marc-Andre Fleury*** |
| 2004 | Washington | Moved from 3rd to 1st | LW Alex Ovechkin |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | N/A | C Sidney Crosby |
| 2006 | St. Louis | Retained 1st selection | D Erik Johnson |
| 2007 | Chicago | Moved from 5th to 1st | RW Patrick Kane |
| 2008 | Tampa Bay | Retained 1st selection | C Steven Stamkos**** |
* NY Rangers obtained Chicago's pick in a trade (via Vancouver and Tampa Bay). The Rangers selected RW Pavel Brendl fourth overall.
** Columbus obtained Florida's pick in a trade. The Blue Jackets selected LW Rick Nash first overall.
*** Pittsburgh obtained Florida's pick in a trade. The Penguins selected G Marc-Andre Fleury first overall.
****At the time the table was created the 2008 NHL Entry Draft had not yet occurred.
Now this doesn't mean that I believe if the Islanders finish 29th or 30th, that they won't get lucky and move up or retain the pick but it's certainly not a proven commodity. No team that has finished 2nd to last in the league has EVER selected 1st overall in that draft year. I would be completely surprised if that trend didn't continue this year. And obviously, even though the team that finishes last has a 48.2% chance of retaining the 1st overall, the roughly 21.7% of the time it has happened certainly is not living up to the law of probabilities.
Frankly, Islanders fans need to come to grips with the distinct possibility that the Isles won't even pick in the top 2 in this Draft. You might want to start buying those Matt Duchene jersey's early to get a discount...instead of jumping the gun and getting that Tavares jersey (thanks to Puck Daddy for catching that one).
